Thursday 31 January 2008

Sensex dn 110 pts at 17649; Nifty dn 30 pts at 5137

Markets slip from day's high amid volatile trade on expiry day. No respite seen for the markets even after another 50 bps Fed rate cut from FOMC. Sensex ends down 110 points at 17649, slips 360 points from day's high while Nifty ends down 30 points at 5137, slips 114 points from day's high. CNX Midcap Index was down 1.6% while BSE Small-cap Index was down 0.22%. BSE Realty Index continuous to be under pressure and was down 2.73%, in which DLF was down 6%, Brigade Enterprises was down 12.5%, Purvankara was down 9.8%. BSE Bank Index was down 1.7%, in which ICICI Bank was down 3.5%, SBI was down 2.5%, Corporation Bank was down 8.5%. Index gainers were Nalco, up 8.5%, Idea, up 7.1%, HUL, up 6.6%, VSNL, up 4.6%. Non-Index gainers were Pyramid Saimira, up 18.3%, Oswal Chemicals, up 17.8%, Concor, up 15.8%, Ess Dee Aluminium, up 12%. Non-Index losers were Bhushan Steel, down 15.7%, Aurobindo Pharma, down 12%, Global Vectra, down 8.6%. NSE Advance Decline ratio stood at 3:5. Total Turnover was at Rs 1.05 lakh Cr Vs Rs 73,108 Cr. Markets clocked turnover of over 1 lakh as Jan F&O series expire.

FNO Snapshot:

Nifty Feb series ends at a massive discount. Nifty Future witnessed short rollover. Stocks future rollover was lower by 20-40% in absolute terms. Lower next month Cost of Carry, low Arbitrage Opportunities.

Rollover ( OI In lakhs):

Liquid Large Caps This Expiry (Feb Buildup) Last 3 Expiry Average Rollover (Lakhs)
Reliance 114 114.8
Bharti Airtel 39 45
DLF 46 44.3
Cairn 83 140.3
Essar Oil 142 182.1
GMR Infra 261 385.7
Liquid Mid Caps This Expiry (Feb Buildup) Last 3 Expiry Average Rollover (Lakhs)
Arvind Mills 105 163.5
Oswal Chemicals 75 146.1
IFCI 436 709.7
Ispat Ind 296 707.6
JP Hydro 131 206.6
Nagarjuna Fertilizers 156 301

Stocks in Action:

Hindalco: Down 6%; Adds 47 lakh shares in Feb; Rollover at 80%
S Kumars: Up 2.3%; Adds 11.94 lakh shares in Feb; Rollover at 80%
HPCL: Up 1.4%; Adds 22.8 lakh shares in Feb; Rollover at 71%
RIL: Up 0.4%; Adds 18.8 lakh shares in Feb; Rollover at 69%
JP Associates: Up 3.6%; Adds 43 lakh shares in Feb; Rollover at 69%
Neyveli Lignite: Up 6.8%; Adds 18.9 lakh shares; Rollover at 57%; Lot of Jan positions left to expire

Stock performance during Jan series:

Nifty down 16%, Sasken down 56%, WWIL down 54%, Nagarjuna Fert down 53%, Omaxe down 49%, Ispat down 49%, Arvind Mills down 46%, Karnataka Bank up 19.8%, Axis Bank up 17.7%, Aditya Birla Nuvo up 8.5%, Welspun Gujarat up 6.8%, Indian Bank up 5.6%.

Global markets today:

Asian markets end mixed after another 50 bps fed rate cut and credit insurers risk. Thailand up 2.7%, Kospi up 2.2%, Nikkei up 1.85%. Hang Seng down 0.84%, Shanghai down 0.78%, Taiwan down 0.30%. European stocks fell, led by banks and insurers, as concern deepened that bond-insurer losses will threaten profits at financial companies.

In Taiwan, FIIs net buy equities worth $ 318.5 mn in today’s trade (Prov). FIIs net sold equities worth $ 1.06 bn during Jan Month Vs buy of $ 768 mn during Dec 2007.

Global Concerns:

MBIA, world's largest bond insurer, posted 4Q loss of $ 2.3 bn. MBIA says considering new ways to raise capital; Warburg Pincus' agreed to help MBIA. S&P says that losses from securities linked to subprime mortgages may exceed $ 265 bn. Next round will be borne mainly by smaller financial institutions in Europe, Asia, and the U.S.

Data To Watch:

USA: Initial Jobless Claims ((Economists expect 320K claims))
Results Today: MasterCard, Bristol-Myers and Colgate-Palmolive