Mkts end weak after falling from intra-day high

Markets end weak after falling from intra-day high on credit policy day. RBI keeps Bank rate, Repo rate, Reverse Repo rate unchanged. Sensex ends down 61 points at 18092; swings 563 points during the day while Nifty ends up 6.7 points at 5281; swings 166 points during the day. Interest rate sensitives like bank, realty and auto stocks hit the most as RBI keeps headline rates unchanged. BSE Bank Index ends down 3.5%, in which ICICI Bank was down 4.2%, SBI was down 3.6%, HDFC Bank was down 3.3%. In realty stocks, Unitech was down 5.6%, HDIL was down 5.45%, Orbit Corp was down 4.7%. In auto stocks, Bajaj Auto was down 3.5%, Eicher Motor was down 1.4%, Hero Honda was down 1%. Index gainers were Suzlon, up 8.7%, Sun Pharma, up 7%, Cairn India, up 6.9%. CNX Midcap Index was down 0.36% while BSE Small Cap Index was up 0.72%. Midcap buzzers were, IVR Prime, up 13%, NIIT, up 11%, Great Offshore, up 9.5%, Praj Industries, up 8.8%, Gujarat NRE Coke, up 8.5%. NSE Advance Decline breadth improves and ends at 7:5. Total market turonver improves compated to last 2-3 days. Total market turnover was at Rs 72,874 Crore Vs Rs 58,520 Crore.

F&O Update:

Turnover picks up; at Rs 56019 crore vs Rs 43396 crore yesterday. Nifty Feb series trades at a steeper discount to Jan series. Nifty witnesses aggressive rollover of short positions. Cost of Carry for select stock futures is subdued on account of less aggressive long rollovers. Strongest rolls seen in textile, cement and power space. Significantly Lower Open Interest in stock futures to be rolled compared to last few expiries.

Fresh Longs/Long Rollover was seen in:

Misc: GMR Infra, Praj Industries, Idea Cellular, Carin India, Bharat Forge, GE Shipping, Chennai Petro, Voltas, Aban Offshore
Cement: Ultratech Cement, India Cement
Large Caps: Hindalco, Reliance Communication, RIL
Power: NTPC, Suzlon Energy
Textiles: Century Textiles,
Banks: BoB, SBI, PNB

Rollover with very Low Roll Cost:

Misc: ONGC, Infosys, HUL, Wipro, ICICI Bank

Unwinding was seen in:

Adlabs, Bharti Airtel, Dena Bank, IFCI, IOC, Ispat

Global market today:

Most of the Asian Indices ended in the green ahead of FOMC decision tomorrow. Buying seen after President Bush speech, expectation of 50 bps rate cut and JP Morgan upgrade. Traders are upping their bets for a 50 bps rate cut. Fed Fund Futures are pricing in 88% probability of 50 bps cut Vs 70% probability earlier. JPMorgan Chase upgraded European stocks; UBS & Royal Bank of Scotland gain. U.S. Pres Bush says permanent tax relief needed.

Global Markets:

Nikkei 250 up 3%, driven by softening Yen. Thailand, Taiwan up 1.2%, Jakarta, Hang Seng up 1%. In Taiwan, FIIs net buy equities worth $ 109.5 million in today’s trade (Prov).

Data To Watch:

FOMC Meeting Begins today; result to be declared on Jan 30
Markets to react to President Bush Speech and American Express numbers; Q4 profit declined 9.9%
3M, Dow Chemical & Countrywide Financial to report earnings
US Durable Goods Orders
US Consumer Confidence