Monday 8 October, 2007

Caution Advised....

The markets reacted to political triggers even as the short term indicators were in the over bought zone.

The markets needed a trigger to correct and the news merely acted as a catalyst as the NSE benchmark index logged a triple digit decline by closing time.

The market breadth was expectedly negative as the combined exchange figures were 601:3289 and the capitalisation of breadth on a commensurate basis was also negative at Rs 3,563 cr: Rs 19,632 crore.

The F&O data for the previous session indicated continued selling pressure as the Nifty PCR firmed up further.

The indices closed off their intraday troughs, but still ended at the lower end of the intraday range.

The traded volumes were lower, which is at best a minor consolation as markets can decline on lower volumes due to gravitational forces.

The intraday range specified for Monday (5240/5195) was easily violated on the downside as the closing was convincingly below this threshold.

The coming session is likely to witness an intraday range of 5225 on advances and 4945 on declines. The wide range is due to the higher base effect of Monday.

Traders should watch the 5165 levels on the Nifty, above which the bulls may attempt to push the prices higher. Traded volumes and market internals should be noted in case of an upthrust above this threshold.

The outlook for the markets on Tuesday is that of continued caution as the 5020 - 5025 band is likely to be a sentiment determinator in terms of swing reversal studies. Below this level, the bears are likely to have an upper hand.

Vijay L. Bhambwani
(CEO- BSPLindia.com)