Monday, 25 February, 2008

Weekly Technical Analysis - Feb 25 2008

The Sensex ended the week on a weak note after exhibiting range-bound movement with a negative bias.

The bulls could hardly bank on the preceding’s week’s profits as the Sensex gave up its gains after touching a high of 18,314, up 199 points from the previous week’s close.

The index, thereafter, drifted to a low of 17,295, down 1,019 points from the week’s high. It finally ended at the lower end of the week’s range at 17,349, down 766 points (4.2 per cent).

Among the index stocks, HDFC (down almost 12 per cent), SBI and ICICI Bank (lower by 8 per cent each) and Reliance (6 per cent weak) were the major draggers. On the other hand, Cipla was the major gainer (up nearly 9 per cent). Hindalco and Bajaj Auto also settled with smart gains.

The trend this week will depend on the derivatives expiry and the budget. While the market sentiment remains subdued, the Sensex has a near-term support at 16,950.

The index is likely to move in a range of 16,200 and 19,000 in the short term until a breakout happens in either direction. It is likely to find support around 16,960-16,840-16,71 and may encounter resistance around 17,740-17,850-17,980 this week.

The Nifty moved in a range of 276 points, from a high of 5,368 and a low of 5,093, before finishing with a loss of 192 points (3.6 per cent) at 5,111.

The index may face resistance around 5,215-5,250-5,280, while support on the downside is likely to be around 5,005-4,970-4,940.

The Nifty will continue to move in a broad range of 4,800 to 5,700, before a fresh trend emerges. The index is below its short-term and medium-term daily moving averages (DMA), which are 5,192 and 5,617 respectively. It is also close to its 200-day DMA of 5,026. One may therefore expect some support around these levels.