Friday, 22 February, 2008

Weekly Close: Investors low on Budget !

It seems investors lost faith in Indian markets. The bourse continues is to trade with low volumes and that also with low sentiments. Sessions were extremely choppy and witnessed roller coaster movement. Market for now is lacklustre and really not showing strength. Any upward rally support by some short term event is use by investor to book profits. For now market really appears as ?no investors land?. Some stock specific action propped up in between on expectations built ahead of budget. But, it would not be wise to expect very good news from budget. Next week is the FNO expiry which could add to the volatility.

Action across global were not too exciting this week. Negative economic news flow continues however, there was some relief from corporate results in US. Recession fear has now started hovering across other parts of the world. Europe and Japan may follow US if the recession worries intensify. Japan is more like to be affected as it is one of the major lenders to US.

Market this week: Sensex down by 4%, Nifty (- 4%), Midcap (- 4%), Small cap (-0.4%), Metal index (-7%), Bank (-7%), Capital goods (- 4.8%), Oil & Gas (- 5.5%). Suzlon (- 9%), Rel Energy (- 9%), Tata Motors (- 7.5%), HDFC (- 12%), SBI (- 8.5%), ICICI (- 8%) while TCS was the in the gainers side up by 3%.

Inflation for the week stood at 4.35%, higher than market expectation. Inflation is at 6 months high. The increase was led by high primary articles that is food and mined articles. Fuel was stable which has around 14% weight age on WPI index. But, Petrol and Diesel prices have been hiked last week and next week we will see the Inflation impacting as it expected to be higher than 4.7%?In such scenario probability of rate cut seems bleak.

The rupee was seen weak as it jumped the Rs 40 mark against the Dollar and touched a five-month low. This saw positive impact on software companies as they rallied and TCS closed higher for the week. But, we are not convinced on the direction and feel that the weakness was seen due to the FII flow moving out of the country. But, the worry is still there as many companies have shrugged off some of their employees with Mphasis being the last one.

Sesa Goa Ltd., India's biggest non- state iron ore exporter was in focus for the whole week on expectations that it will raise prices for Japanese steelmakers from April 1 matching the price increase by Brazil's Cia. Vale do Rio Doce. Global iron ore prices have been trending up over the last few years. Given the strong demand from China and lagging supplies from the three consolidated global miners, we expects iron ore prices to continue its upward movement. Sesa Goa is India?s largest private iron ore miner with reserves of over 207 million tonne. It is aggressively ramping up production to capitalize on the rising price trend. Valuations are attractive. Sail and Tisco also benefits from this but Sesa Goa would be preferred player. Expect a detailed note coming week.

We had our research on DLF this week. DLF group is a leading real estate developer in India having a strong foothold in the National Capital Region of Delhi.DLF?s has three prime divisions: Homes, Offices and Shopping Malls. To these DLF has added three more divisions: Hotels, Infrastructure and SEZs. DLF has been developing an area of 748 Mn sq.ft and that too at minimal cost of around Rs 300 per sq.ft . Hence the company does not need to invest much in future, and also most of the properties are presold. There is sensitivity to the profit margin of selling price and development cost and that can have big variation. Our valuation parameters are based on the value of DLF?s land bank and to add to that the profitability of the future. Do read our note for our view on this one.

SKF Indian reported healthy results for the 4th quarter and FY07. For the 4th quarter the top line grew 11% to Rs 420 cr and the bottom line grew 10% to Rs 40 cr on yoy basis. The Ebidta profit enhanced 19% to Rs 61 cr while Ebidta margins were unchanged at 15%. The better efficiency and economies of scale helped the company to maintain the margins. Valuations seems to be fair at the current market price of Rs 368, the stock trades at 12 times of FY07 earnings. Despite the slow down in auto and industrial sectors the company has been able to maintain a healthy growth because of more exposure to after market sales. For details do read our analysis on this

Shringar Cinema one of Mumbai?s leading Multiplex player with its Fame brand of theatres. The company started as a production house then shifted Distribution to Exhibition business where it felt it has great potential to grow. The company operates 48 screens with 14 properties. This Business contributes over 65% of the revenue and around 30% is contributed by its Distribution business. We like the Film exhibition business as there are huge opportunities here. But, this business requires large space and rentals which squeezes bottom line if the occupancy is not maintained. Shringar own presence in distribution, which accounts for about 31% of its consolidated revenue in FY07. We believe that increases the risk here. The aggressive expansion plan is also hit with delay in hand over of the properties in time. We think that it?s a high risk proposition and risk reward is in favor. It?s meant for investors willing to take a high risk bet. However there are other plays in this business who seem to be better placed.

Technically speaking: Sensex has closed near its very important support level of 17250, if we break this support, we might fall another 1000 points and the next major support comes just above 16k. On the higher side, there are resistance at every 200 points.