Thursday, 19 July 2007

Sensex in a hurry !

Markets started off with a bang carrying the momentum of yesterday closing and then there was no stopping. It was Reliance which lead from the front. The ferocity of the upmove in the absense of any positive global cues surprised one and all. There were no results which could be called spectacular today and even more the numbers were more of a disappointment from Wipro and ACC. However Wipro closed steady and so did ACC. Reliance as a heavyweight led the markets and the gas find seemed to find the buyers today as analyst did their back of the envenlope calculations.

WiposIts results season. Larsen results came in strongly positive and the stock rallied. However some other income dampened the enthusiasm. ACC results were certainly a disappointment. The stock was hit but made a strong come back. There was some profit taking seen in the banking sector. The talk is that the RBI may have a CRR hike even ahead of the meeting now that the offers of UTI bank, HDFC bank are over with. Tough call but given the positive momentum, the markets closed up in a frenzy.

Sensex closed up by 249 points at 15550 helped up by gains in Tata Motors (778.05,+5 percent), Bajaj Auto (2381.75,+4 percent), RIL (1896.45,+4 percent), Grasim (2996.45,+3 percent) and Infosys (1996.85,+3 percent). Restricting the gains are Hero Honda (693.4,-3 percent), HLL (197.85,-1 percent), Rel Energy (685.9,0 percent), Cipla (205.45,0 percent) and Dr Reddys (665.05,0 percent).

Transport Corporation of India was one of the stocks in action. This company is set to be a large logistics company and will benefit from the growing oranisation in the unorganised Transportation market. We had a note just last month and the stock has delivered exceptional gains. Do read that note

Larsen & Toubro ended 2% higher post its quarterly results today. Net profit for the quarter came in at Rs.377 cr vs Rs.157 cr, up by 140%. Net sales stood at Rs.4505 cr vs Rs.3469 cr, up by 30%. Company had bagged orders worth Rs.3,400 cr in the month of July itself. The order book remains healthy. However a fly in the ointment was the large other income. Valuations at 28 X FY 8 certain price in superb execution. We would look for lower levels here to take position. The risk from slippage in execution remains high.

Prime Focus Ltd. (PFL) the largest independent company in the business of post production for Movies and Advertising films ended 3% higher. VTR has turned around and the company intends to make the UK business even more profitable with cost rationalisation. We had a research note on the company today where we believe that the growth may disappoint as we believe that the only scalable part of the business is the Visual Effects and thats still small part of revenues for the company. The company provides integrated production and visual effects services in India. Its services include visual effects, digital intermediate, film scanning and film recording, telecine, editing, motion control, etc. Do read the details for our view !

Eastern Silk Ind the major silk exports major from the country closed 2% higher. The top line of the company in the last quarter witnessed a growth of 10% YoY. The lower input costs coupled with improved product mix helped in improved margins. Lower input costs also helped in offsetting the impact of the appreciating Rupee. The recently started manufacturing unit near Banglore is expected to increase the installed capacity by 20%. Do read our note on the company to know the risk factors and the investment arguments in favor of the company.

echnically Speaking : Sensex traded in a broad range for the day between an intra day high of 15,993 and low of 15,357 levels. Volume to the tune of Rs.5,699 cr was churned out through out the day. Sensex has hit our expected target level of 15550. We could see some pullback from here on profit booking. The trend remains up. Support for sensex at 15400 and 15330. But its better to avoid predicting a top. Enjoy the ride.