Sunday 2 March 2008

Monday Jolt Likely

Specifically for Monday, we see a gap-down opening after a fairly bad close on Wall Street on Friday in the wake of fresh bad news on the US economy and the financial sector mess. With the budget out of the way, the focus in the market will once again turn to global events, though the aftereffects of the budget will continue to linger for a while.

We expect sector-specific action in the coming days on the back of announcements in the budget. However, the same may taper off soon and the market is likely to remain choppy and rangebound amid persistent global uncertainties. We will have sun outage from March 4 till March 18.

Historical evidence suggests that the Indian market tends to be sluggish and lackluster during the sun outage. Its being called a year of consolidation after a 4-5 year rally. In light of that prediction, we see the market struggling for a quite a while before any meaningful rebound takes place.

A major recovery and a return to earlier record peaks is possible only if FII inflows resume in a big way. Also, the confidence among retail investors needs to be restored.