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Tuesday 15 January, 2013

Multibagger of Long Term Investing

Wouldn’t you be shocked if we told you that someone has turned Rs 10,000 into Rs 3,69,00,00,000 (Rs 369 Crores) in 32 years?. And that too by doing nothing in stock markets!! We bet you would be... :)


Your next question would definitely be – Who has done it?

Our answer is that we don’t know. But we are pretty sure that promoters of company would be one of them. They would have held shares for 32 years and made a killing. By the way, turning Rs 10K to Rs 369 Cr is same as growing your money 49% year on year for 32 consecutive years. Even great Warren Buffett managed a ‘paltry’ 25%...  So even if we told you earlier that you cannot become Warren Buffett, here we have data, which suggests that you actually can!!

(In comparison, banks pay 8% per year on deposits)

So now you’ll ask – How has it been done?

Before we answer this question, we would caution you that data given below has been collected from various sources and may or may not be correct. So, take it with a pinch of salt.

The company is WIPRO. Suppose you invested Rs 10,000 in its shares in 1980. You would have got 100 shares @ Rs 100 each. Now shares of Wipro have gone through multiple splits & bonuses. So we adjust them as and when splits & bonuses happened.

1980 – Bought 100 shares @ Rs 100

1981 – 1:1 Bonus = 200 shares

1985 – 1:1 Bonus = 400 shares

1986 - Stock Split to Rs.10 face value = 4000 shares

1987 - 1:1 Bonus = 8000 shares

1989 - 1:1 Bonus = 16,000 shares

1992 – 1:1 Bonus = 32,000 shares

1995 – 1:1 Bonus = 64,000 shares

1997 – 2:1 Bonus = 1,92,000 shares

1999 - Stock Split to Rs. 2 face value =9,60,000 shares

2004 – 2:1 Bonus =28,80,000 shares

2005 - 1:1 Bonus =57,60,000 shares

2010 – 3:2 Bonus =96,00,000 shares

Value of one Wipro share is around Rs.385.

So as of today, your investment of Rs 10k is worth a staggering  Rs.369 crores!!

And we are not finished yet. If you know about benefits of dividends, you would realize that Wipro has been a regular dividend payer. Last year it paid Rs 6 per share as dividend.  So you would have earned  Rs.5,76,00,000 (Rs 5.76 Crores) last year alone as dividend income. Just imagine how much you could have made from dividends alone in last 32 years. :-)

via - http://www.stableinvestor.com/2012/12/multibagger-of-long-term-investing.html

Friday 11 January, 2013

How stock scams works in India

I will teach you how stock scams work today and for that Let me declare something – “After years of study and hard work, I have come up with a strategy which can predict stock markets movement with almost 100% accuracy. Each month I can tell you which way market will move in next 30 days, it can be UP or DOWN and I can guarantee that. If someone needs to see the performance, I can give a free 6 tips trial.” Now what will be someone’s reaction on hearing this? Most probably, some of you will get excited and interested in getting these free tips, at least to check if I am saying truth or not! . Right now I have a big subscriber base with more than 10,000 people (11.5k to be precise) whom I can reach by email. Let’s see how I can create a stock tip scam -

Here is how we will build a scenario wherein you are Ajay who is extremely interested in knowing about the tops which are almost 100% accurate. Ajay is bearing some disbelief in his mind, but due to the trust factor in the given tips he thinks ‘Let’s see what tips Manish gives, they are free anyway and by reading his tips I am not losing anything’.

I start sending you exactly one tip each month and it starts this way:

Tip #1 (May) : Markets are headed UP

Reaction  : Markets really went UP in the month of May. Ajay feels good, but still he is confused if its just luck or did It really went up based on my tip . Ajay anyways wanted to just check the tip and how it turns out . He is a bit impressed and he has made up his mind to act upon the tips if 3 consecutive tips work.

Tip #2 (June) : Markets are headed UP

Reaction  : Markets after a bit of volatility finally went up and the tip was a success again! Markets are up by great extent, but Ajay feels like a fool to be so fearful and not act on it. But his confidence has started building up. If the next tip also works, Ajay will invest some money for sure based on the tip!

Tip #3 (July) : Markets are headed DOWN

Reaction : Crash! A huge sell off came in the month of July and the 3rd tip in a row was correct. Ajay starts feeling “Oh my god! Looks like Manish really have come up with something amazing which can predict markets” Ajay makes up his mind to “try” next 3 tips and see how it performs!

Tip #4 (Aug) : Markets are headed UP

Reaction : With all the excitement, Ajay has invested Rs 10,000 in the markets to see if he can make some quick bucks! However, Markets are headed down in the starting of the month and all the TV channels are confirming that next Crash is on the way. Ajay is a bit nervous and secretly praying for the tip to work somehow. He wants market to go UP as per the tip. Everybody around him has already sold off and decided to sell of all the stocks, but you are on the other side. You are praying, literally! And here it comes, markets make a turn up side and it makes one of the sharpest come back in 1 week. Ajay is now in profit and he feels like a winner. Ajay’s confidence in my tips is becoming stronger, but still he is not ready to take BIG risks, he needs to solid confirmation that the tips will fall true no matter what, which is about to come .He will invest 40k in the next tip of mine.

Tip #5 (Sept) : Markets are headed DOWN

Reaction :  Ajay thinks that he should liquidate all the investments in direct stocks and even his mutual funds. His friends do not think alike and suggest him that he should not go with the tip, but Ajay wants to confirm the tips and wants to see the affect on his investments in real time :) Markets move downside and he is now confirmed that there is really some kind of mega-research done by Manish to come up with the tips using his secret-strategy. Ajay can now visualize how he can become a millionaire soon by subscribing to the tips for next 1-2 yrs. He is just can’t wait for the last tip to show its magic!

Tip #6 (Oct) : Markets are headed DOWN

Reaction : Ajay is totally with the tips now and has decided to use this last one to make some quick bucks, he does some short selling and buys some puts options by finding out how to make money in falling markets. With his confidence in the free tips, he does not lose focus and waits for the tips to turn correct. Markets fall as per the tip and due to his decisions, Ajay has made some amazing money this time. He is clear that he wants these tips at any cost now!
Free tips are over now.

Taking money from the targets – How Stock Scams unfold

Tips are over now, Ajay and many others like Ajay has experienced the amazing tips which really worked. They all get a mail after few days from me.
Hi, you might have already got 6 free tips from me each month, we give only one tip each month, but it’s bound to work. It’s based on our strategy which is based on years of research. If you want to continue getting the tips further. It would cost Rs 50,000 for 1 year subscription. You can expect the same accuracy like you saw in last 6 months.

Disclaimer: The tips are highly accurate and we make sure they are accurate, but we can’t promise it and can’t guarantee it legally. Risk is yours
Ajay is so much impressed with my tips performance and so much drowned in greed, that he subscribes to my offer and pays 2 lacs for the secret tips subscription. The tips start coming from next month. But there is some issue this time! . Somehow, not all the tips are working this time. Some tips work, some does not. It’s not at all accurate like it was before. In reality all the tips are just random tips and Ajay is totally frustrated. He has lost a lot of money because he invested big money each time, thinking it would work!
The truth is Ajay fall prey to a stock scam. Now let me share how all this works.

How this scam works

At this moment I have around 10k or more email subscribers and I can send emails to this 10,000 group. I divide this group of 10,000 readers into 2 parts A and B, I send a tip “BUY” to A group and tip “SELL” to B group. One of them will be true for sure. After month is over, I see which tip was correct. If A group was correct, I discard group B and only have people in group A as my final group. This group will be the group which got “correct” tip.
Now I do the same thing again, I divide them in group A and B with 2,500 members each and send “BUY” and “SELL” tip to them. Now again, markets will move UP or DOWN and one of those groups will be right at the end of the month. I again discard the group which got wrong tip. This way I continue doing it for 6 times and at the end I have small group of 156 people who was right all the 6 times and Ajay accidently belonged to his group.
How Tip Scam works

Targets paying for the subscription

Now you can imagine how many people will fall prey to these scams? Even if 20% of the people fall in the trap and are ready to pay Rs 50,00o, it would be Rs 10 lacs in total! Here you can clearly see that out of 10,000 there will always be a group of 156 people who will always get “accurate” tips and the beauty of this strategy is that people who were discarded only get one wrong tip, and after that wrong tip, they don’t get any more tips.
There are many tip providers in real life who claim to give you 90-95% accurate tips with free 1 week trial, If you are getting a lot of right tips, you might be that lucky small group which is their “TARGET” as seen above in the chart. Don’t fall prey to these stock scams. Beware!

- by Manish Chauhan

Thursday 10 January, 2013