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Tuesday, 4 March 2008

US Market ends flat but mixed

Late in the session, Dow recovers most of its early day losses

Taking cues from global equity markets across the world, US Market ended mixed today, Monday, 03 March, 2008 with S&P 500 being the only index to register some gains. But the US Market managed to shelter itself from any huge loss. Economic reports dominated the entire day. They were mixed in nature. But the dollar sunk to a new all time low against the euro today and to a three year low against the yen. Commodities touched an all time high today with both crude oil and goad touching new highs. Eight of the ten economic sectors posted gains today. Financials and technology were the only two sectors to post losses.

After being down by more than 100 points at one time, The Dow Jones industrial Average ended the day with a loss of 7.5 points at 12,258.8. The Nasdaq Composite Index, finished lower by 12.8 points at 2,258.7. S&P 500 finished higher by 0.71 points at 1,331. Fifteen out of thirty Dow stocks ended in the red today led by Boeing and GM.

In economic news, The February Institute of Supply Management Index (ISM), a national manufacturing survey, fell to 48.3, compared to the expected reading of 48. Because the reading is below 50, it reflects a contraction in manufacturing in the United States.

Also, The Commerce Department reported that January construction spending fell 1.7% month over month. This was a larger slide than the expected decline of 0.7%.

The Nasdaq continued to remain under pressure today due to weakness in large cap tech names like Apple, Google, RIMM and Microsoft.

FIIs continue selling

Outflow of Rs 244.10 crore on 29 February 2008

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth net Rs 244.10 crore on Friday, 29 February 2008, compared to their selling of Rs 529.30 crore on Thursday, 28 February 2008.

FII outflow of Rs 244.10 crore on 29 February 2008 was a result of gross purchases Rs 3800.90 crore and gross sales Rs 4045 crore. The 30-share BSE Sensex declined 245.76 points or 1.38% at 17,578.72 on that day.

FII outflow in calendar year 2008 totaled Rs 11,546.60 crore (till 29 February 2008).
There are a total of 1,302 FIIs registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (Sebi)

Monday, 3 March 2008

Nifty March 2008 Futures at a discount

Turnover in F&O segment declines

Nifty March 2008 futures were at 4882, at a discount of 71 points as compared to spot closing of 4953.

The NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 36,591.82 crore, which was lower than Rs 49,083.49 crore on Friday, 29 February 2008.

Reliance Industries (RIL) March 2008 futures were at discount, at 2296, compared to the spot closing of 2306.

Steel Authority of India (Sail) March 2008 futures were at discount, at 228.05, compared to the spot closing of 230.75.

Reliance Natural Resources (RNRL) March 2008 futures were at discount, at 123.75, compared to the spot closing of 124.75.

In the cash market, the S&P CNX Nifty lost 270.50 points or 5.18% at 4953.

Sun Outage - Market timings changed

From March 4 to March 18 2008 - Market timings will be as below


MARKET OPEN 09:55 AM to 11:45 AM

BREAK 11:45 AM to 12:30 PM

MARKET RESUME
12:30 PM to 04:15 PM

CLOSING SESSION 04:35 PM to 04:45 PM

FII & DII trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment

The following is combined FII trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by FIIs on 03-Mar-2008.

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 03-Mar-2008 3416.87 4128.18 -711.31




Domestic Institutional Investors trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment

The following is combined Domestic Institutional Investors trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by Banks, DFIs, Insurance and MFs on 03-Mar-2008.

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 03-Mar-2008 1283.3 1202.83 80.47


The data is provisional in nature and is subject to changes, inter alia, on account of custodial confirmation process, modifications etc.

NSE data has been compiled on the basis of trading codes entered by the trading members at the time of order entry and corresponding client category classification provided by the trading members as part of unique client code details upload.

BSE data has been compiled on the basis of marking of 'client type' while executing orders on BOLT-TWs in equity segment.

Multibaggers - Indian Hotel Company

With high land and commodity prices, the asset creation currently is happening at much higher prices, which will benefit existing players like Indian Hotels since it would make their business more competitive.

The Indian Hotels Company Ltd. (Indian Hotels) is the largest operator and manager of hotels, palaces and resorts primarily in India in the Luxury, Business, and Leisure segments and owns the ‘TAJ’ brand.

The Taj Group operates a total of 84 hotels with over 10,000 rooms. The Taj Group has a significant geographical spread of hotels in India, having properties in the major cities and large towns in India as well as in some of the key leisure destinations in South Asia. In the recent past the Company, through its wholly owned subsidiaries, has acquired hotels in New York, Sydney, Boston and San Francisco. The Company has majority ownership interests through subsidiaries in 16 hotels and resorts with 2,105 rooms and has minority interests in 29 hotels (amounting to 3,157 rooms). In addition, the Taj Group manages a total of 15 hotels, palaces and resorts in India and internationally pursuant to management contracts for third party owners (amounting to 1,481 rooms).

The Taj Group classifies its business divisions by the quality of the property, the range of services, and the guests it targets. Accordingly, the Taj Group has classified its hotel properties under various divisions as Luxury India, Luxury International, Business, Leisure and Ginger, which account for 27.16%, 13.62%, 29.97%, 20.35% and 8.90% of total rooms of the Taj Group, respectively. The Company derives the majority of its revenue from the Luxury India division. The Company is focused on the high end (five-star deluxe) Luxury India and Luxury International divisions of the hotel market while maintaining a significant presence in the Business and Leisure divisions.

In order to pursue opportunities in the “value-for-money” segment, the Company, through its wholly owned subsidiary, has launched “Ginger” brand of hotels catering to budget travelers. Currently, nine Ginger hotels are operational at various locations. The Company has also entered into a joint venture agreement with CC Africa and Cigen Corporation to promote wild life tourism in India and has two resorts, one each in Bandhavgarh and Pench in the state of Madhya Pradesh.


Key Risks

The major risks include a) Slowdown in economic activity leading to reduced demand for Hotel rooms b) Unrest or event risks and c) Oversupply of rooms in the future, which can adversely impact the operations of the company.

Conclusion

India has been witnessing an increase in International Tourist Arrivals as well as growth in domestic tourism. The various global campaigns launched by the government like “Incredible India”, “Atithi Devo Bhav”, “Colors of India” and “Wellness Campaign”, to promote inbound tourism is a pointer to the fact that the Indian Government realizes the tourism is not only a significant revenue earner but also a core employment generator.

The domestic tourism in India is also on a rise. India’s strong economic development and the growth in its services industry has led to increased corporate spending on business travel. Moreover, with higher disposable incomes, leisure travel is also on an upswing. There is a huge shortage of quality hotel rooms across the country as supply has not been able to keep pace with demand.

The potential of the sector is evident from the fact that many International Hotel chains and real estate developers want to be a part of the Indian Hotel sector. For instance - Hilton, Marriott, Starwood, Shangri-La, Carlson, InterContinental, Accor, Hyatt and Choice have all charted out extensive expansion plans in India. Some of these hotel chains such as Hilton and Marriott have formed alliances with large Indian real estate developers such as DLF and Unitech, respectively. However, with high land and commodity prices, the asset creation currently is happening at much higher prices, which will benefit existing players like Indian Hotels since it would make their business more competitive.

The company has a multi-pronged strategy for growth. This includes- a) Foray into budget segment with ‘Ginger’ to target economy and mid-market segment; b) Asset-Light strategy with focus on franchise arrangements and management contracts, rather than property owner and manager; and c) Other service offerings like Air Catering business, food and beverages outlets, SPAs and service apartments, by leveraging the “TAJ” brand.

The Hotel sector has been a laggard relative to the sensex, we believe the sector could see a Re-rating in view of the potential of the sector and earnings growth visibility.

We believe Indian Hotels is poised for rapid growth due to increasing business and leisure travel in India and the demand outpacing the supply of rooms. Moreover, a conducive macroeconomic environment, coupled with higher ARR and occupancy levels augur well for the company. With India attracting increasing foreign interest in terms of trade and investment, international business travel into India is also on a steady rise. We believe Indian Hotels is well poised to make the most of the demand explosion which the Hotel sector is set to witness in the coming years.

Ashish Chugh is an equity analyst and investment consultant based at New Delhi, INDIA. At the time of writing this article, he, his firm and dependent family members have a trading position in the stocks mentioned above. The author, his firm or any of his dependent family members may make purchases or sale of the securities mentioned in the report while the report is in circulation. The author invites readers to send him email and welcomes comments, feedback & queriesat nexgenfin@yahoo.com.

This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and the information contained herein may not be deemed to be an investment advice. Such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. The information contained herein is not a complete analysis of every material fact representing any company, industry or security. The views expressed may change. While the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for the accuracy of its contents. Investors are advised to satisfy themselves before making any investments and should consult with and rely upon their own advisors whether and how to use such information in making any investment decision. Neither the author nor his firm accepts any liability arising out of use of the above information/ article.

SENSEX'S FIVE BIG FALLS












































Date
Close
Prv Cls
Change
% Chg
21-Jan-08
17605.40
19013.70
-1408.35
-7.41
03-Mar-08
16677.90
17578.72
-900.84
-5.12
22-Jan-08
16729.94
17605.40
-875.41
-4.97
11-Feb-08
16630.90
17464.90
-833.98
-4.78
18-May-06
11391.43
12217.81
-826.38
-6.76

Sensex ends down 901pts, SBI drops 9%

The Sensex opened with a huge negative gap of 351 points at 17,228 on weak cues from the global markets. Selling gained momentum after the benchmark index slipped below the 17,000-mark.

The index tumbled to a low of 16,635 towards the end of the trading session. The Sensex finally settled with a loss of 901 points (5.1%) at 16,678 - the second-biggest single-day loss in absolute terms in history.

The NSE Nifty ended below its physchological 5,000-mark at 4,953 - down 271 points (5.2%).

The BSE market breadth was extremely negative - out of 2,766 stocks traded, 2,333 declined, 393 advanced and 40 were unchanged today.

INDEX SHAKERS....

SBI slumped nearly 9% to Rs 1,923. DLF and HDFC dropped around 8.5% each to Rs 715 and Rs 2,571, respectively.

BHEL tumbled 8% to Rs 2,099. Hindalco and NTPC declined 6.5% each at Rs 190 and Rs 189, respectively.

Reliance, ICICI Bank and Reliance Communications dropped around 6% each to Rs 2,305, Rs 1,024 and Rs 541, respectively.

Reliance Energy, Satyam and Larsen & Toubro slipped over 5% each to Rs 1,486, Rs 412 and Rs 3,344, respectively.

Infosys declined nearly 5% to Rs 1,472.

ITC, HDFC Bank and Bharti Airtel shed around 4.5% each at Rs 193, Rs 1,391 and Rs 791, respectively.

...AND THE SHAKERS

Cipla and Hindustan Unilever gained 2% each at Rs 212 and Rs 232, respectively. Ranbaxy added 1% to Rs 451.

VALUE & VOLUME TOPPERS

Essar Oil topped the value chart with a turnover of Rs 257.70 crore followed by Reliance Petroleum (Rs 237.80 crore), OnMobile Global (Rs 235 crore), Reliance (Rs 230.50 crore) and Reliance Capital (Rs 208 crore).

Reliance Petroleum led the volume chart with trades of around 1.42 crore shares followed by Reliance Natural Resources (1.21 crore), IFCI (1.09 crore), Essar Oil (1.02 crore) and Nagarjuna Fertilisers (99.70 lakh).

Benchmark indices close over 5% lower

Benchmark indices closed over 5 per cent lower Monday weighed down by weak global sentiments. Banking and power stocks were the worst hit in bear assault. BSE Sensex closed 900.84 pts down at 16,677.88. It touched a high of 17,227.56 and low of 16,645.87.

NSE’s Nifty ended 5.37 per cent or 279 points lower at 4,944.05. It touched a high of 5222.80 and low of 4936.05. TierII &III shares were less affected in the market meltdown. BSE Midcap Index and BSE Smallcap Index closed 4.29 per cent and 4.11 per cent lower respectively. Amongst the sectors BSE Bankex fell 6.74 per cent and BSE Power Index fell 6.49 per cent.

State Bank of India (down 9.89%), DLF (9.53%), BHEL (8.41%), HDFC (7.91%), Hindalco Industries (7.05%), Reliance Communications (6.52%) and Satyam Computer (6.48%) were under pressure. Biggest gainers were Hindustan Unilever (up 1.61%), Cipla (1.18%), Maruti Suzuki (0.78%) and Ranbaxy Laboratories (0.65%) managed to brave the tide. Across BSE, 2236 declines outnumbered 402 advances.

Sunday, 2 March 2008

Monday Jolt Likely

Specifically for Monday, we see a gap-down opening after a fairly bad close on Wall Street on Friday in the wake of fresh bad news on the US economy and the financial sector mess. With the budget out of the way, the focus in the market will once again turn to global events, though the aftereffects of the budget will continue to linger for a while.

We expect sector-specific action in the coming days on the back of announcements in the budget. However, the same may taper off soon and the market is likely to remain choppy and rangebound amid persistent global uncertainties. We will have sun outage from March 4 till March 18.

Historical evidence suggests that the Indian market tends to be sluggish and lackluster during the sun outage. Its being called a year of consolidation after a 4-5 year rally. In light of that prediction, we see the market struggling for a quite a while before any meaningful rebound takes place.

A major recovery and a return to earlier record peaks is possible only if FII inflows resume in a big way. Also, the confidence among retail investors needs to be restored.