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Sunday, 5 August 2007

Mutual Funds Tip for More Profits

The mutual fund industry has staked its claim to the confidence of investors by establishing a tradition of plain dealing, honest accounting and overall trustworthiness. If there were sharks on Wall Street, they didn’t swim in the mutual fund sea.

That image changed early September, 2003 when the attorney general of New York State announced a $40 million settlement on insider trading charges involving a hedge fund and several mutual funds. Further revelations brought the impact of Wall Street’s recent reforms into question and cast the fund industry in a distinctly negative light.

The initial charges centered around the hedge fund Canary Capital Partners and Bank of America’s Nation Funds and Bank One’s Banc One Funds. Among the alleged improper activities is the charge of “back-dating” the Net Asset Value, or NAV, of shares for select customers at the expense of others.

The pricing of NAV is supposed to take place at the close of every session. An investor who can back-date his shares can take advantage of a news event after the close that will impact the NAV the next day. Buying a technology mutual fund after a big announcement by Intel or Microsoft at 4:15 p.m. means that the customer will benefit from the likely upward move the next morning.

There were other shenanigans, all of which is letting air out of the balloon of trust in the fund companies. Right now the New York AG is still investigating Bank of America and Bank One along with Strong Capital Management and Janus Capital Group, the Vanguard Group and Invesco funds. Illinois regulators are looking into the practices of Samaritan Asset Management Services. The financial regulator in Massachusetts is probing Prudential Securities and associated fund companies. The SEC has sent out letters requesting information to Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs and Fidelity Investments.

That covers a big chunk of the mutual fund industry. If you have money in a fund from one of those companies, this is not necessarily the time to bail out. But you should invest with your eyes open.

For ages we’ve questioned the priorities of mutual fund managers, and the whole brokerage business for that matter. Our question: Are they in it for you, the investor, or for themselves and the string-pullers in the boardroom?

Last year we ran a piece on a fund manager who was eased out of his position because he failed to put all of his cash to work in stocks and warned of the pitfalls of the industry’s standard “buy and hold” strategy during a bear market.

We drew three lessons from the story:

First, with a few exceptions mutual funds and the entire brokerage industry are devoted first and foremost to making money for the company. If the customer makes money, too, that’s fine. The buy and hold strategy is the prime reason why millions of investors have lost much of their retirement savings from 2000-2002.

Next, if you invest in mutual funds, you’re usually better off using index-tracking funds that simply follow the S&P 500, NASDAQ or DOW and are less likely to be manipulated by management.

Finally, take control of your financial destiny by setting up a model portfolio. Closely monitor it, and jump in and out of the market as the trends come and go.

For more FREE trading tips, enter your email address at:

TOP PICKS - Sharekhan

Friday, 3 August 2007

Best Mutual Funds

Results and Renewed positions

Cadila Healthcare
Cluster: Emerging Star
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs425
Current market price: Rs355

Results beat expectations

Result highlights

The total operating income of Cadila Healthcare (Cadila) increased by 28.4% year on year (yoy) to Rs572.2 crore in Q1FY2008, driven by a 19.7% growth in the domestic business and a 49.9% rise in the exports. The sales growth was ahead of our expectations.

The domestic business was driven by an 18.2% increase in the sales of branded formulations, a 44% rise in the sales of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and a 52.4% jump in the consumer business. The improved performance of the French business (a growth of 49.8% yoy) and the US business (a growth of 122.6% yoy) contributed largely to the robust growth in the exports.

The operating profit margin (OPM) shrank by 70 basis points to 19.4%, largely due to a 245-basis-point decline in the gross margin due to lower realisation on exports and a changing product mix. Consequently, the operating profit grew by 23.8% to Rs111.2 crore.

Despite a jump in the interest expense, the depreciation charge and the tax provision, the net profit rose by an impressive 38.1% to Rs73.9 crore. The profit growth was aided by a foreign exchange (forex) gain of Rs9.1 crore (on translation of outstanding foreign currency loans) recorded during the quarter as compared with a forex loss of Rs1.3 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. The net profit surpassed our expectations.

In order to incorporate the impact of the recent acquisitions and the appreciation of the rupee against all the other major currencies (on account of which the realisations on exports have reduced), we are revising our estimates for Cadila. We have upgraded our revenue estimates by 5.2% and 5.1% to Rs2,241.0 crore and Rs2,600.8 crore for FY2008E and FY2009E respectively. Further, we have reduced our FY2008 and FY2009 earnings per share (EPS) estimates by 2.1% each to Rs21.6 and Rs26.1 respectively.

At the current market price of Rs355, the company is trading at 16.4x its FY2008 and at 13.6x its FY2009 estimated earnings. With all the growth drivers in place and on track, we reiterate our Buy recommendation on Cadila with a price target of Rs425.




Bharat Electronics
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs1,975
Current market price: Rs1,650

Price target revised to Rs1,975

Result highlights

In Q1FY2008, Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL) reported a decline of 16.3% in its net sales to Rs404.4 crore. Given the fact that the company had a record order backlog of Rs9,100 crore at the beginning of the fiscal, the revenues in Q1 were much below street expectations.

The performance at the operating level was even more disappointing with an operating loss of Rs4.6 crore during the quarter. In addition to the lower than expected execution in Q1, the operating profit was dented by the provision of Rs25.7 crore made for wage hikes and additional increments to its employees (of which Rs6.4 core pertains to the previous year).

However, the other income component for the quarter jumped by 71% to Rs65.6 crore (as against Rs38.4 crore in Q1FY2007) which enabled the company to report a profit after tax (PAT) of Rs26.3 crore. The PAT for the quarter was, however, down by 56.4% as compared with Rs60.3 crore reported in Q1FY2007.

Though the performance has been disappointing in Q1, the management expects the growth to pick up in the coming quarters on the back of a robust order book executable in the current year. Consequently, we are not revising our estimates and would review the same depending on the performance in Q2FY2008.

Along with the results, the company announced a final dividend of 140% (or Rs14 per share) for the year 2006-07. Including the interim dividend of 40%, the total dividend for the year stands at 180% (or Rs18 per share).

At the current market price the stock trades at 11.8x FY2008 and 9.3x FY2009 estimated earnings (multiple adjusted for estimated free cash on its books). We maintain Buy recommendation on the stock with a revised price target of Rs1,975 (12x FY2009E earnings plus estimated free cash of Rs545 per share on its books).




Mahindra & Mahindra
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs900
Current market price: Rs694

Price target revised to Rs900

Result highlights

The Q1FY2008 results of Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) were below our expectations. The stand-alone net sales of the company grew by 16.8% to Rs2,612.8 crore in the quarter led by an overall volume growth of 13.6%. The estimated impact on sales due to strengthening of the rupee is at Rs18-20 crore.

On segmental basis, the automotive revenues rose by 21% to Rs1,504.5 crore, whereas the FE division's revenues grew by 9.7%. The profit before interest and tax (PBIT) margin in the automotive segment declined by 110 basis points due to the strengthening of the rupee. The appreciation in rupee led to lower export realisation and lower profitability during the quarter. The FE division maintained the PBIT margin at 13.4%. Consequently, the overall operating profit margin (OPM) declined by 150 basis points to 10.6%, causing the operating profit to grow by only 2.5%.

On account of an increase in the interest expenditure and higher depreciation, the adjusted net profit grew by 6.8% to Rs192.75 crore. After taking into account the extraordinary items (voluntary retirement scheme expenses, special dividend income) the profit after tax (PAT) declined by 6.4% to Rs191.16 crore.

On consolidated basis, the gross revenues grew by 40.7% to Rs5,879.2 crore in Q1FY2008 while the profit before tax (PBT) and exceptional items grew by 11.7% to Rs535.7 crore.

We expect FY2008 to be the year of consolidation for the company as new product launches would take place only in FY2009. We are downgrading our consolidated earnings per share (EPS) for FY2008 by 13% to Rs61.8 and for FY2009 by 15% to Rs69.7.

We have a sum-of-parts price target for M&M. In view of the downgrade in earnings we lower our price target to Rs900, where the core business is valued at Rs490 and 50% of the value is derived from its subsidiaries.




Tata Motors
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs792
Current market price: Rs699

Results below expectations

Result highlights

Tata Motors’ Q1FY2008 results were below our expectations due to lower than expected margins. However, the bottom line was buttressed by a higher foreign exchange (forex) gain on account of strengthening of the rupee during the quarter.

The net sales of the company grew by 5.3% to Rs6,056.8 crore during the quarter on the back of a 1.3% growth in volumes and a 3.9% growth in realisations.

However a high raw material cost and lower volumes particularly in the commercial vehicle (CV) segment adversely affected the margins (excluding the forex gain/loss), which declined to 9% from 11.9% in the same quarter last year. Hence, the operating profit declined by 19.9% to Rs546.3 crore.

A little higher interest and depreciation charges caused the adjusted net profit for the quarter to drop by 39.4% to Rs259 crore. After accounting for the forex gain of Rs205.9 crore, the net profit for the quarter grew by 22.4% to Rs466.76 crore.

Looking at the consolidated performance, the company’s sales grew by 13.3% to Rs7,631.3 crore while the profit excluding the forex gain declined by 27.7% to Rs308.2 crore. The profit after tax, extraordinaries and forex adjustments grew by 35.7% to Rs516.1 crore.

We continue to take a cautious outlook on the CV industry, considering the high interest rates and lower availability of finance. We expect the lacklustre trend to continue for another quarter at least. Things are, however, expected to improve somewhat in the third quarter as freight demand may receive a boost with the advent of the festive season.

In view of the lower than expected profit margins, we are downgrading our consolidated FY2008 earnings by 10% to Rs54.5 for FY2008 and by 5% to Rs62.9 for FY2008. At the current levels, the stock trades at 11x its FY2009E consolidated earnings and is available at an enterprise value (EV)/earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBIDTA) of 5.9x. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs792.




Hindustan Unilever
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs280
Current market price: Rs201

Results above expectations

Result highlights

The Q2CY2007 results of Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL) were above our expectations. The net revenues of the company grew by 12.9% year on year (yoy) on the back of an 11.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in the home and personal care (HPC) segment, which comprises the soap and detergent, and personal care businesses.

The soap and detergent business grew by 14.6% whereas the personal care product business grew at a lower rate of 6%. The growth in this segment was lower due to the pipeline clean-up in the skin care segment prior to the relaunch of Fair & Lovely. The beverage business grew by 20.8% yoy whereas the processed food business grew by 37.4% yoy.

The profit before interest and tax (PBIT) margin showed an expansion of ten basis points to 16.2%. The expansion in the PBIT margin is attributable to the improved margins in the HPC segment, which showed an increase by 118 basis points. The PBIT margin was slightly depressed by the losses in the nascent water business excluding which the PBIT margin stood at around 17%.

The operating profit margin (OPM) of HUL expanded by 126 basis points to 14.7% on a y-o-y basis due to a lower advertising spend and a stable raw material cost. The selling and administrative expenses as a percentage of sales decreased by 155 basis points which improved the margin. Moreover HUL has been able to maintain its market share in such a competitive market which is quite commendable.

The operating profit grew by 23.5% to Rs512 crore in Q2CY2007 from Rs414.7 crore in Q2CY2006. Excluding the losses from the water business, the growth in the earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBIDTA) had been at 30%, which is quite commendable. The net profit grew by 29.5% to Rs493.1 crore in Q2CY2007.

HUL has announced buy-back of shares from the market at a price of Rs230 per share for a total amount of Rs630 crore, which will reduce its equity capital upto 1.2%. This is likely to begin in September 2007 and we expect the impact of this buy-back to be neutral on the earnings but to positively affect the sentiment of the stock.

At the current market price of Rs201, the stock is quoting at 23.5x its CY2007E earnings per share (EPS) of Rs8.5 and 21x its CY2008E EPS of Rs9.6. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs280.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VIEWPOINT

Tata Steel

Subdued volume

Results highlights

In Q1FY2008, the revenues of Tata Steel grew by 7.6% year on year (yoy) due to a 15% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in realisations to Rs40,324 per tonne. However the sales volume dropped by 7% yoy to 1.04 million tonne. Sequentially, the realisations grew by 2%, whereas the volumes declined by 17%. The reduction in volume was mainly due to the shut down of LD2 furnance for upgradation and the delay in the cold rolled shipment of 27,000 tonne.

The operating profit per tonne improved by 15% yoy and 8% quarter on quarter (qoq) to Rs16,323 per tonne mainly due to increased realisations and improving efficiency. The operating margins during the quarter were stable at 40.5%. The other income included sale of a cold rolling mill for a consideration of 67 crore.

The profit after tax (PAT) grew by 28% yoy to Rs1,222 crores largely driven by the forex gain of Rs553 crore due to exchange gain from foreign currency borrowing. The adjusted PAT declined by 10% yoy to Rs669 crore on account of a sharp increase in the interest cost (due to increased borrowing for Corus acquisition) and the increase in one time wage expense.

IPO Grey Market Premium

Closed IPOs

Simplex - Rs 160.
Alpa Labs - (Discount. The IPO was subscribed only 1.1 times.)
Omaxe - Rs 100.
Omnitech Info - Rs 100.
Zylog - Rs 330.
IVR Prime Urban - Rs 14.
Central Bank - Rs 38.
SEL - Rs 5.
Asian Granito India - Rs 10.

Current IPOs

Purvankara - Rs 40.
Take Solutions - Rs 220.
KPR Mills - Rs 25.

Forthcoming IPOs

Refex - Rs 18.


Disclaimer: The prices may just be a indicator and may not be the actual price on the listing date.

Sensex up by 153 points But....

Sensex up by 153 points But posts second straight weekly loss


Indian share prices closed up 1% on Friday on bargain-hunting as funds and investors bought benchmark stocks after sharp declines earlier in the week, dealers said.
They said local markets will continue to track global equity trends, amid concerns that overseas funds may exit emerging markets over US credit woes.

The Mumbai stock exchange benchmark 30-share Sensex index closed up 152.7 points at 15,138.4 after gaining 49.93 points on Thursday. The markets plunged 3.96 percent, their second sharpest fall for the year, on Wednesday.

Gainers led losers 1,538 to 1,002 on lower volume of Rs39.81 billion ($986 million).
The rupee gained against the dollar to 40.36 from 40.43 while it fell against the euro to 55.31 from 55.26.

Overseas funds this week led the sell-off sparked by heavy losses on Wall Street after further problems in the US home loan market while Indian banks were hurt by a rise Tuesday in their cash reserve requirement aimed at stemming credit growth.

Mid-day Markets traded within a narrow range post mid-day. The overall market breadth was positive with gainers outnumbering losers in the ratio of 4 to 1 on the Nifty. Software stocks were witnessing selling pressure.

The BSE Sensex was trading up 198 points, at 15,184 (up 198 points) while the NSE Nifty is trading at 4,411, up 55 points.

Energy stocks are currently trading firm with Reliance Petro, Petronet LNG and RNRL leading the pack of gainers (each up 2%). As per a leading business daily, the seventh round of ’New Exploration and Licensing Policy’ (NELP VII) is likely to be delayed till October-November this year due to shortage of drilling units across the world.

According to the DGH (Directorate General of Hydrocarbon), the situation is pertaining to the shortage of rigs is likely to improve in a year and a half and hence it is makes much more sense to delay the auction.

Opening Tracking the firm global trend, the Bombay Stock Exchange Index, Sensex, continued its recovery move by rising another 225 points at open on sustained buying by foreign and domestic funds.

The Sensex, which had recovered 50 points in yesterday’s (2 August) trading, spurted by 224.56 points at 15210.26 in first five minutes on trading. The key index had plummeted nearly 4% on 1 August.

Similarly, the wide base National Stock Exchange Index Nifty jumped by 65.50 points at 4421.85 points as heavy-weight stocks like ACC, Reliance Communications, BHEL, Larsen & Toubro and Infosys gained 2 per cent each. As the buying gathered momentum, all the sectoral indices lead by capital goods and realty rose smartly.

Thursday, 2 August 2007

Mutual Fund - Best Picks

Take Solutions IPO Analysis

CLEARER SOLUTIONS LIE AHEAD

MAX. ISSUE SIZE (Rs) : 153 crores
PRICE BAND (Rs) : 675 - 730
ISSUE OPENS/CLOSES : 1st August to 7th August, 2007
LISTING : NSE, BSE




Take Solutions is primarily an IT products company with its prominent verticals being supply chain management and life sciences. While they contribute almost equally to the company’s revenues, its product offerings number 16 products in the supply chain management segment and six in the life sciences segment.

The primary issue objective seems to be repayment of debt raised for an earlier acquisition. The balance has been earmarked to develop domestic facilities and new products and also to repay term loans.

Its key markets are the US and Asia Pacific regions, suggesting the likelihood of its being impacted by the depreciating US dollar. Thus, Take Solutions needs an European footprint suggesting that the inorganic route needs to be better explored.


Though a low base effect has translated into seemingly vertical growth in its topline and bottomline, a fluctuating Operating Profit Margin acts as a red herring.


While the company is engaged in potent product segments and there is unmistakable growth potential, the fact is, its ability to manage scalability and develop unique products could hold the key to the fortunes of its investors.

In this context, the pricing of this IPO at P/E multiple of 28 which places it at a premium to other listed IT product companies, undermines immediate prospects for investors. Longer term investors though would do well to watch over this company’s possible European foray and the development of unique products.

Buy SpiceJet; Target Rs 81: Karvy

SpiceJet with a fleet size of 12 and market share of 8% is the second largest Low Cost Carrier (LCC) in India. With industry moving into the consolidation phase, we expect air fares to strengthen over the next two years and the entire industry would be a beneficiary. SpiceJet would be increasing its fleet from 11 in fy07 to 23 by FY09E. SpiceJet is expected to break-even in FY09E on account of its superior operational efficiencies, strong passenger volume growth and expected improvement in fares. We are initiating coverage on the stock with a BUY rating and target price of Rs 81.

Consolidation in the industry to provide much needed relief:

Consolidation in the aviation industry has marked the 1HFY2007 with three M&A deals happening during the period. Air India - Indian merger, Jet airways buying out Air Sahara and the latest being UB group picking up 26% stake in Air Deccan, all of them bringing the much needed boost to this loss making industry. Consolidation will ease competition and give pricing power to the dominant players and as a result of higher fares even smaller players like SpiceJet will benefit.

Strong passenger growth to boost top-line and profit:

Strong passenger growth would lead to 86% CAGR growth in revenues for the next two years. Increased passenger volume would also help in spreading fixed cost over larger passenger base there by bringing down per unit cost. We expect the revenue passengers for SpiceJet to increase from 2.8mn in FY07 (12 months) to 6.8mn in FY09E, a CAGR of 58%. The expected growth in revenue passenger is on account of aggressive increase in fleet size from 11 aircrafts in FY07 to 23 aircrafts by FY09E.

SpiceJet to break even in FY09E:

Superior operational efficiencies, strong passenger volume growth and expected improvement in fares are expected to make SpiceJet profitable by FY09E. With consolidation happening in the industry fares are expected to move upwards which we believe along with volume growth would be sufficient for SpiceJet to turn profitable. SpiceJet is expected to grow its revenues at 86% CAGR over FY07-FY09E and turnaround in FY09E with net profit of Rs759mn.

Increased focus on ancillary revenue stream:

In order to break even, SpiceJet is focusing on income coming from ancillary services like in-flight catering, selling insurance, excess baggage, promotional offers, providing hotels and car on rent. In a move to increase ancillary revenues, SpiceJet has started selling food on-board and has recently tied-up with TATA AIG insurance to provide insurance to air travelers for Rs129. During FY07, SpiceJet earned Rs348mn as ancillary revenues which were 5.4% of the total operating revenues. We expect the share of ancillary revenues to increase to 6.9% and 7.7% for FY08E and FY09E respectively.

Valuations: SpiceJet's revenues are expected to grow by 86% CAGR over the next two years with fleet size increasing from 11 to 23 by FY09E. On back of expected increase in yields due to consolidation in the industry, SpiceJet is expected to turnaround in FY09E and report net profits of Rs759mn. At the current market price of Rs56 the stock is trading at a PE of 22.3x its FY09E earnings and at an EV/EBITDAR of 12x and 3.2x for FY08E and FY09E respectively. We are initiating coverage on the stock with a buy rating and target price of Rs81. We have valued the stock at an EV/EBITDAR of 5x its FY09E earnings.

Mahindra and Mahindra

Lower margin lugs top-line outperformance



Maintain BUY; CMP Rs 707; Target Rs 950


M&M's Q1FY08 results were better than expectations on the top-line front, but the company failed to carry the momentum into a commensurate bottom-line growth. The CRR hike of 50bps may lead to poor liquidity conditions, against an earlier expectation of softening of lending rates by the end of Q2FY08. Under the prevailing circumstances, we believe that the lending rates may continue to remain on the higher side for some more time, thereby impacting the volume growth of auto companies, including M&M. Yet, we continue to believe that M&M is one of the best plays on the Indian automotive industry from a long-term perspective. Maintain BUY with a target price of Rs 950.

Results Highlights

Strong revenue growth of 16.8% to Rs 26.1billion was better than our
expectations, driven by better realization (up 3.6% YoY).

OPM at 10.5%
was down 80bps QoQ and 150bps YoY, resulting in operating profits of Rs.
2.76billion (up 2% YoY). Higher sales of the new low-end Bolero variant impacted
automotive margins.

Adjusted net profit for the quarter was up by 6.8%
YoY to Rs 1.93billion, much below our estimate of Rs 2.5billion. Reported net
profit dipped by 6.4% YoY to Rs 1.91billion.

Consolidated net profit
(post minority) stood at Rs 3billion, up 3.3% YoY.


Outlook

We revise our standalone earnings downward to Rs 37.4 and Rs 41.7 vis-à-vis Rs 42 and Rs 45.5 for FY08E and FY09E, respectively.

Prolonged higher interest rate scenario could impact volume growth.

Valuation

At the current market price of Rs 707, the stock is trading at PER of 11.3x and 9.8x FY08E and FY09E PoEA EPS, respectively. Maintain BUY with a revised target price of Rs 950, an upside of 35%. At our target price, the stock would trade at 12.9x and 11.6x FY08E and FY09E core EPS, respectively. However, in the absence of any material positive trigger, the stock may remain under pressure in the near term.